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LEAP/E2020 believes it is unlikely there will be major military conflicts (involving two or more major powers) between now and 2013

 
danes1
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10/07/2010 01:15 PM
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LEAP/E2020 believes it is unlikely there will be major military conflicts (involving two or more major powers) between now and 2013
Step 5: Strategic crises – Q1 2011 / Q4 2013
A rapid rise in the level of diplomatic confrontation (a period of verbal exchanges on limiting and breaking off diplomatic relations); a change in the temperature of disputes, rising from « cold » to « hot »; appearance of new areas of conflict; increasing number of international conferences or summits deferred indefinitely or cancelled; a growing number of displays of military strength within the framework of trade; monetary and other disputes; regular resurfacing at the highest level of all sorts of disputes; increasing extremism of the media and public opinion over these different conflicts, …

The recurrence of the Israeli-Palestinian-Lebanese conflict, Iraq coming off the rails, and NATO’s rout in Afghanistan make up the strategic knots which will « unravel » quickly from next year, setting increasingly powerful protagonists against each other with the United States at the root of it: Israel and Iran, Iran and Saudi Arabia, India and Pakistan,… At the same time, tensions will rise over Taiwan, Georgia, Columbia and Venezuela, testing the new boundaries of declining US power. Our team considers that the failure of the Copenhagen summit and the near-disappearance of the G20 from international news indicate a process of a big fall in the number of high-level international meetings: cancelled international summits, continual deferments (like the WTC Doha trade round) where never-ending negotiations will increase and constitute a reliable measure of this step. On the other hand, there will be an increasing number of regional summits suggesting the formation or strengthening of blocks; and a rise in the level of the latent conflict between China and the United States (21). LEAP/E2020 believes it is unlikely there will be major military conflicts (involving two or more major powers) between now and 2013, but this step will see a rise in the number of low-level conflicts, and will especially see military and strategic considerations come to the forefront at the time of other crises: a worrying sign for the rest of the decade. As regards this step, we believe here too that 2012/2013 should offer a political opportunity for the new world political leaders to retake control of this dangerous slide.
[link to www.leap2020.eu]





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